The 2026 NBL has started taking shape as we approach the final third of the first round. Fourty four (44) of the sixty six (66) first round men’s NBL games have been played and there is a lot of talk about the contenders and potential relegation threatened.

Has the relegation battle started? This is the topic that writer Avitus Ngabirano shall be breaking down in this article.

With just 33% of the total league games played, it is hard to make an argument about relegation because of the so much uncertainty of the future.

However, as the saying goes, where there is smoke, there is fire; we have seen early signs of what the relegation battle could potentially be like.

So far, 4 teams standout in what could be the relegation battle. The Kampala Rockets, JKL Dolphins, UMU Flames and the UPDF Tomahawks.

Coming into this season, the two teams that had been promoted were the top candidates for the relegation. JKL Dolphins which finished 10th in 2025 had 10 wins while Victoria Crocs, which was 9th, had 12 wins, same as the number 6 seed.

The 2026 season promised to be even more competitive and many hope that the relegation battle will be one to watch out for.

UMU Flames

The UMU Flames lost 6 consecutive games to start the NBL season. Their most disappointing defeat was that against the JKL Dolphins. The team looks solid and competitive but they hadn’t found the winning formula. However, in their last 2 games, they managed to secure back-to-back wins, against the UPDF Tomahawks and the Kampala Rockets.

UPDF Tomahawks

The UPDF Tomahawks returned to the NBL and one of their goals was to stay afloat. They made some interesting additions but they didn’t convince many people. They lost their first 4 games despite the scores being close.

Their defeat against the KCCA Panthers was the most painful because they had the game in their hands but found a way to lose it.

In their fifth game, they pushed the UCU Canons to the edge and managed to win their first game of the season. They also made a 15-point fourth quarter comeback against the JT Jaguars to win in overtime.

However, despite getting such big wins, the Tomahawks have fallen to side close to them. They have lost to UMU Flames, and Kampala Rockets.

JKL Dolphins

In 2025, the JKL Dolphins won 10 games and some thought that they could take it a notch higher. However, they haven’t been convincing and have been the worst team. They average 53 points scored per game and the Kampala Rockets are the only other team to average less than 60 points (57).

JKL’s 2 wins have come against the Kampala Rockets and the UMU Flames which is an indication that they can beat those around them.

The Dolphins also have a couple of people on their roster who could be able to join and bolster their squad in the second round.

Kampala Rockets

After finishing inside the top 4 in the 2025 first round, there was a lot of hope in the Kampala Rockets. The expectations and the reality have been opposite. The Kampala Rockets have won just 2 of their 7 games played.

Their wins came against the JT Jaguars and the UPDF Tomahawks but they have lost to the UMU Flames and the JKL Dolphins.

Interesting first round games

All these teams have 2 wins so far. The UMU Flames have faced all the other 3 teams and went with a 2-1 record. UPDF have faced the Kampala Rockets and the UMU Flames and lost both. JKL Dolphins have played the Kampala Rockets and the UMU Flames and won both games.

The Kampala Rockets have faced all the 3 opponents and finished with a 1-2 record. The biggest game that is remaining among these four teams in the JKL Dolphins against the UPDF Tomahawks.

Whoever wins this game will put themselves in a much comfortable position compared to the others. Another important thing is, getting a win outside these opponents will come in handy. UMU face a JT Jaguars side that has been shaky. If they can get a positive result, it will be humongous.

Between now and the end of the season, a lot can happen. In 2024, there was drama when the Kampala Rockets, who had a single victory in the first round, qualified for the playoffs. Power, which had been in a much more comfortable spot after the first round then got relegated.

The other thing to be keen on is the fact that teams often reinforce during the mid-season transfer period. Case in point, Sommet in the 2025 season. They added 3 players and moved from potential relegation to the number 3 seed. If a team can recruit well and make a run, they have a high chance of catapulting themselves into a playoff position.

As things stand, these are the four teams which are expected to be in the relegation battle but things can change quickly.