The 2026 NBL regular season has been very interesting and it will go down to the final game week. One of the most looked at areas of the table is the relegation zone and 3 teams all have a chance to be relegated with each team having 1 game to go.

The Kampala Rockets have already been relegated and in this article I will point out all the likely scenarios in which teams can survive or join the Rockets.

UPDF Tomahawks

Following their 78-71 victory over the UCU Canons in overtime, the UPDF Tomahawks massively increased their chances of survival. They currently have a 6-15 tied with the JKL Dolphins and 1 win ahead of the UMU Flames. They face the Victoria Crocs in their final game of the regular season.

For UPDF to ensure survival, they need to win their final game. That will put them to 7 wins, which would be more than the maximum the UMU Flames can amass (6). However, if they lose their game, they can still survival although their survival wouldn’t be in their hands.

If UPDF lose their game, they would hope that UMU Flames also lose. This way, UMU would stay on 5 wins while UPDF would be on 6. If UMU win their game, UPDF must win in order to survival. This is because UMU and JKL won the tiebreakers against UPDF, and if UPDF and JKL lose, while UMU win, all the 3 teams will be tied on 6 wins and UPDF would be last.

If UPDF lose and both JKL and UMU win, JKL gets 7 wins while UPDF and UMU stay on 6 wins but UPDF on the tiebreaker.

JKL Dolphins

The JKL Dolphins have a 6-15 record and need many stars to align for them. If they win their game against the Rezlife Saints, they ensure their survival. However, should they lose, the situation would be out of their hands.

If JKL lose, they would survive if either UPDF or UMU lose their games. If JKL and UPDF lose while UMU win, the 3 teams will be tied on 6 wins and both JKL and UMU survive while UPDF gets relegated. If JKL and UMU lose while UPDF win, UPDF and UMU survive while JKL gets relegated.

UMU Flames

The UMU Flames have a 5-16 record and in order for them to survive, they MUST win their game and hope that the other teams falter. If UMU win their game and both JKL and UPDF lose their game, UMU and JKL survive.

If both UMU and UPDF win while JKL lose, UMU and UPDF survive while JKL gets relegated. If both UMU and JKL win while UPDF lose, UPDF gets relegated.

In a nutshell

If you want to survive, you must win your game. JKL will have a mountain to climb as they face 3rd placed Rezlife Saints while UMU and UPDF face ‘easier’ opponents.

Additionally, there is a fight for the number 8 seed which will be interesting. If UPDF win while the JT Jaguars lose to the UMU Flames and the JKL Dolphins lose to Rezlife, UPDF can finish as the number 8 seed and secure a playoff place.

If UPDF win their game while JT Jaguars lose their game, the JKL Dolphins secure the number 8 seed and make the playoffs.