Following the 82-64 victory of the Namuwongo Blazers in game 6 of the NBL finals, there have been some people questioning whether the game was scripted. The talk has a genesis and we shall discuss that and if the game was actually fixed, in this article.

Why do some people think the game was fixed?

There are a number of reasons as to why people think this game was fixed. One of them started long before the game was played.

After game 5, there was talk that the minister for sport had suggested a potential game 7 be played at Hoima. For that to happen, the Namuwongo Blazers had to win game 6. So, some people think that with the Hoima thing being  already out, the Federation had to do everything possible to ensure that a game 7 happens.

Secondly, the money involved. The NBL Committee has made a lot of revenue from the finals. A game 7 would mean that even more money is made. So a section of fans believe that the federation/ NBLC wanted to have a game 7 so as to get more revenue.

The Namuwongo Blazers’ protest. Some fans believe that the federation wanted to quiet the Namuwongo Blazers. In their protest, the federation never provided the passport for Malual which is a requirement in case of doubt of Nationality of a player. In order to quiet this, they made sure that the Blazers win.

There are very many other theories but those above are some of the major ones. The key question in all this is; is there any authenticity to those claims?

Well, if you look on the surface, the Nam Blazers won and by a significant margin. In the first five 5 games, the biggest points difference at the end of the game was 6. However, in game 6, when the Blazers had to win, the points difference was 18. If you see that statistic, it is very easy to say that the game could have been fixed. However, was it? We shall analyze the facts.

An analysis

Game 6 was in very many ways similar to the first 5 games despite the margin of victory being too big. There have many trends that have been seen throughout the series and game 6 was no different.

Generating a big lead?

In game 1, the Namuwongo Blazers led by as many as 17 points in the third quarter. However, the City Oilers clawed their way back in the game but couldn’t turn it around.

Game 2 was similar as the City Oilers flipped the script. They led by as many as 17 points in the fourth quarter but the Nam Blazers fought and brought the game to within 1 possession. Jonathan Komagum then produced arguably the best sequence in the finals series so far as he blocked Nyembo on defense and scored a put back. That play deep in regular time secured the win for the Oilers.

In game 3, we also saw the City Oilers lead by 5 points with barely 30 seconds to play. Fataki Nyembo then scored back-to-back threes to send the game into overtime.

In game 4, the Nam Blazers led by 14 points in the first quarter. City Oilers turned the game around but were also unable to secure the win. Tonny Drileba produced a moment of magic as he fouled Rembert to send him to the free throw line on the Oilers final possession.

Game 5 was the only different game. Namuwongo led by 5 points in the fourth quarter but the City Oilers turned the game around and won. The Oilers performance in the clutch was sensational.

When you look at game 6, it was similar. The Namuwongo Blazers exploded in the second quarter and took a 16-point lead into the halftime break. In the third quarter, they extended their lead to 22 points. Once again, we saw the Oilers try to make comeback and they cut the deficit to 10 points. However, the Blazers managed to weather the storm and see out the game.

Another key statistic to look at is the lead at halftime. Whoever has led the game at halftime has gone on to win the game.

In game 1, the Namuwongo led 39-29. Game 2, City oilers led 44-39. The Oilers once again led, 35-34 in game 3. When the Blazers won in game 4, they led 38-32 at halftime. Game 5, Oilers led 41-40 while in game 6, the Nam Blazers led the game 45-29.

If you are to follow this trend, the winning team at the halftime break won the game and game 6 was no different.

Obleng and Ssebaggala explosion

If someone had said that Peter Obleng and Henry Ssebaggala would be game changers in this game, they would have been called crazy. Ssebaggala hadn’t stepped on the floor in the finals and he only made the squad because Tembo got an injury. His extraordinary performance couldn’t have come at a better time. He made 11 straight points for the Namuwongo Blazers including 3 consecutive 3-point shots. He finished with 15 points in 18 minutes.

Obleng had scored a total of 23 points in the first 5 games. He had scored just 3 3-point shots from 15 attempts. Him catching fire in the second quarter and the close of the first was unexpected. All this was a surprise for both the Oilers and the Nam Blazers. Obleng made 4 of 5 3-point shot attempts and finished with 8 of 15 from the field. All he did in this game was more than what we had seen him do in the first 5 games combined.

I don’t think that any of us saw this coming. Not in anyone’s wildest imagination did we see Obleng and Ssebaggala explode for 37 points.

3-point shooting

Shooting from beyond the arc has been a key determinant in who wins a game in the series. Whoever has done better in this category has gone on to win the game. In game 1, Nam Blazers took it 11-5. Game 2, Namuwongo scored just 1 3-point shot while the City Oilers scored 6. In game 3, the Oilers once again took it 12-5. Both teams were very poor in game 4 but Namuwongo took it 4-3. In game 5, Oilers took it 7-5 while Namuwongo won that contest 8-6 in game 6. The trend has been the same and it did not change in game 6.

Assisting

In the 6 games played so far, Namuwongo has registered 145 assists (24 assist per game) while the City Oilers have registered 103 (17 assists per game). The Blazers have been moving the ball and creating some easy opportunities. With their increased conversion (43% FG jn game 6), their points scored were expected to rise. When you look at the Oilers in this category, they haven’t done badly but the Blazers have been far better.

Field goal attempts

The Namuwongo Blazers have had 452 attempts from the field. They have averaged 75 attempts per game. On the other hand, the City Oilers have attempted 399 shots, an average of 66.5 per game. This means that the Blazers have attempted almost 9 more shots than the Oilers per game.

In all the games, there hasn’t been one in which the Oilers have had more attempts that the Blazers. The closest they came to that was game 6 (the teams were tied) but the conversion for the Blazers on the day was way up compared to what we had seen previously.

Basing on these statistics, it is very clear that on a given day, when the Nam Blazers converted better, they would register a big victory. We saw that in game 6. Also, as we mentioned earlier, the assisting, Namuwongo registered 30 assists in game 6 and is in correlation to their field goal efficiency going up.

Final take

When you look at the statistics above, there was not much that was different. The Blazers were just a bit more efficient and that is how they managed to score the 80+ points. On the other hand, the Oilers did as they have done throughout the 6 games but with the Blazers’ finishing being better, it was only going to end one way.

The two teams will clash for game 7 on Saturday 22nd at the Hoima Arena. Who will make history?