The NBL Semi-finals series between the JKL Lady Dolphins and the UCU Lady Canons has lived up to it’s expectations.
The 2024 finalists and currently the 2 most decorated teams in the NBL are going toe-to-toe for a spot in the finals.
Currently, four games have been played and the series is tied 2-2.
However, when you dive deep into the statistics, they tell a story.
Ahead of the decisive game 5, we take a look at the statistical comparison of the 2 teams through the first 4 games.
Who is better? Who needs to improve where?
Defense
They say that defense wins championships and both these teams have played defenses that have worked for some stretches.
In all the games, JKL has used a press at some point more so at the start.
With this, they have managed to make it difficult for UCU but the Lady Canons have always found a solution.
In game one, JKL started pressing hard from the get-go but this did not pay off.
Despite UCU making turnovers (29 in game one), JKL did not turn this into points on offense.
They scored just 18 points from turnovers while UCU scored 28, which was about 50% of their total points in that game.
UCU has registered 90 (22.25 ppg) turnovers compared to JKL’s 78 (19.5).
However, UCU has scored more points from turnovers, 68 (17 ppg), 9 more than JKL’s 59 (14.75).
For the UCU Lady Canons, they have had to adjust their defenses and the zone has helped them a lot.
In the 2 games that UCU has won, they have limited JKL’s offense greatly.
JKL scored their lowest points in a long time in game one as they were limited to just 46 points.
In game 4, they were limited to just 50 points.
The points difference in games one and four were 11 and 15 respectively.
While JKL’s points difference in games two and three were 8 and 4 respectively.
The UCU Lady Canons defense has been key because in game 2, they limited JKL to 0 points for over 8 minutes.
In game 4, they also limited JKL to 0 points in over 5 minutes and just 5 points in a quarter.
These stretches have been key for UCU because they came at stages when they were trailing and they managed to adjust.
Points in the paint
This has been one of the biggest disparities and the JKL Lady Dolphins Head Coach, Henry Malinga expressed his concerns on that.
UCU has scored 126 points in the paint (54% of their total points) while JKL has scored just 82.
In game one, they scored 38 of their 57 points from the paint. Since most of the attempts in the paint are high percentage attempts, this has made scoring easy for them.
In the 2 games that UCU won, they outscored JKL 66-36 in points in the paint.
Rebounds
This is also an area that UCU has heavily dominated.
They have outrebounded JKL in all the 3 games with 222 rebounds to JKL’s 174.
In game 4, this was one of those areas that helped the Lady Canons get over the hump as they had 20 more boards than their opponents.
This is also one of those areas that JKL need to address coming into game 5.
3-point shooting
This is one of the areas that JKL has capitalized on. They have scored 25 3-point shots compared to UCU’s 18.
Hope Akello, Ritah Imanishimwe and Brenda Ekon have all scored huge 3-point shots which helped them earn their 2 wins.
In the 2 games that UCU won, they shot better from the 3-point line than JKL. It was 10/49 for UCU compared to 10/61 for JKL.
Basing on the stats, the team that has a better 3-point shooting percentage wins the game.
Bench Points
JKL has done better in this area of the game with 73 points to UCU’s 58.
However, there is one important thing to note in this stat.
The team that has had more bench points in a game has lost the game.
In game one, JKL scored 26 bench points (57% of their total points) but lost the game.
In games 2 and 3, UCU had a slight edge in bench points but also lost the 2 games.
The trend carried forward in game 4 as JKL did better in bench points but still lost.
This indicates that the starters have been the key. Everytime your starters are not firing, compared to your opponents, you are most likely to lose.
Field Goal Percentage
Just like points in the paint, the team that has attempted more in the game has lost.
However, the disparity in the number of attempts has not been much.
The biggest difference has been, which kind of attempts.
In games 2 and 3, JKL scored 8 field goals from the 3-point line which was 7 more than UCU.
That was the biggest difference despite JKL having scored 45 attempts to UCU’s 41.
In game one and four, UCU scored more field goals, 48 to 36 and won the games.
Transition
UCU has also been the better team by far in this category. They have scored 74 points in transition compared to JKL’s 58.
In game 3, they exploded, scoring 34 points of their 61 points (56% of total points) in transition.
One of the reasons for this is the youthfulness and athleticism of the Lady Canons.
The Lady Dolphins have to make sure they reduce the transition points because the Lady Canons can easily explode and get easy baskets.
Conclusion
These stats are just trying to paint a picture of how the teams have been performing.
Game 5 will be very intense from the get-go but it will boil down to a couple of things.
- Who shoots the 3-point shots better
- Can JKL work better to fight for the rebounds
- JKL’s ability to limit the points in the paint for UCU
- Transition. Who can get the easy baskets on the fast breaks.
The teams shall need their star players to step up if they are to win the game.
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